If there is one thing you learn from contemporary history of conflicts between empires and autocrats, it is how to read the silence. Right now, the silence coming out of the diplomatic backrooms in Geneva is deafening. But the roar of jet engines over the Persian Gulf is telling us everything we need to know.

As of this morning, February 18, 2026, the American military buildup around Iran has reached a critical mass not seen since the prelude to the Iraq War. The USS Abraham Lincoln is on station. The Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group is days away. They are flanked by upwards of fifty F-35 and F-15E strike eagles operating out of forward bases in Jordan and additional missile defense batteries in Qatar.

This is not a drill, and this is not a surgical strike. The Pentagon has stacked the deck for a "weeks-long" air campaign. Unlike the limited "Midnight Hammer" strikes of June 2025, this armada is engineered for the total, systemic dismantling of the Islamic Regime’s defensive, ballistic, and nuclear nervous system. With an 86-year-old Ali Khamenei publicly daring Washington to pull the trigger, and negotiations locked in a black box, we are standing at the edge of the abyss.

When you strip away the political theater, the strategic landscape leaves us with exactly three scenarios. Two end in absolute misery. One offers a precarious, ugly survival.

Scenario 1: The "Unwritten" Deadlock (The Best Case)

Diplomacy is currently on life support. The US delegation in Geneva, heavily pressured by a hardline Israeli security establishment, is reportedly demanding the geopolitical equivalent of unconditional surrender: the complete dismantling of all nuclear facilities, a hard 300-kilometer cap on all ballistic missiles, and the severing of the entire regional proxy network.

Let me be blunt: if Washington demands total capitulation, war is guaranteed. The Islamic Republic will never agree to strip itself naked in a neighborhood full of adversaries.

The only off-ramp is a "freeze-for-freeze" deal. Washington accepts a suspension of uranium enrichment without touching the ballistic missiles, and Tehran hits the brakes on its nuclear sprint. It would be an "unwritten promise"—Iran doesn't build the bomb, and the US keeps its carriers parked and allows the regime to sell discounted oil to China.

However, what makes such a deal unlikely is the elephant in the room: Iran’s 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium (HEU). Without surrendering that stockpile to IAEA inspectors and allow nationwide inspections, Iran remains an ambiguous nuclear state. Therefore the results of negotiations seems to be binary, either a deal that involves sanctions lifted and nuclear safeguard for Iran or no deal. 

But for the Iranian people, a diplomatic deadlock—no matter how frustrating—is infinitely preferable to a graveyard. A strike gives the regime the ultimate "rally around the flag" gift. A deadlock denies them that war-time legitimacy, buying the Iranian middle class the one asset it desperately needs: time to organize a final, non-violent revolution.

Scenario 2: "The Head of the Snake" (The Decapitation Gamble)

In the darker corners of Washington and Tel Aviv, there is a push for the "2nd Option"—the targeted assassination of Ali Khamenei. The theory is neat and clean: cut off the head, and the IRGC crumbles.

History, however, hates neat theories. This is a gamble of catastrophic proportions. Khamenei operates inside a fortress of paranoia. If an Israeli-led decapitation strike misses, the blowback will be apocalyptic. A wounded, cornered Supreme Leader would throw the country into martial law, redirecting every last drop of national wealth toward regime survival while the civilian economy is scorched to ash. The regime survives; the people starve in the dark.

If the strike succeeds, the nightmare simply shifts gears. A dead Khamenei becomes a martyr. His successor and the remaining regime leaders will continue on the same path and negotiation with the killers of the “martyr” would be extremely difficult if not impossible for them, specially with Trump's administration. Moreover, the HEU’s fate would still be unknown, and the regime may even rush to build a nuclear arsenal or become more determined to do so.

Another version of this scenario involves mass assasination of most major figures of the islamic regime. In the scenario, the internal fractures of the state would shatter, islamic republic would weaken, and unknown forces who are most likely to be more violent hardliners would take power in the islamic republic. In this scenario, securing loose nuclear material becomes a terrifying coin toss, and the Iranian populace is subjected to an even more brutal, militarized junta.

Scenario 3: Scorched Earth and the Shattered Shield

If diplomacy fails and the assassins miss, we get the main event: a large-scale, 800 sortie a day, weeks long war involving the US and Israel. The target list will not stop at Natanz or Fordow. The primary objective will be the eradication of Iran's military power.

This is the ultimate trap. For all the regime's failures, those missiles are the nation's sole conventional defense shield. Destroying them does not bring freedom; it brings balkanization. Strip Iran of its deterrent, and neighboring states with historical grievances—Azerbaijan eyeing the northwest, the UAE pressing claims in the Persian Gulf—will smell blood in the water. Internally, well-armed separatist insurgents in Kurdistan and Baluchestan would exploit the chaos to carve out autonomous zones.

Furthermore, Tehran will not die quietly. Retaliatory strikes will rain down on any regional base that hosted US jets, alongside massive barrages targeting Israeli ports and refineries. The "scorched earth" will be a regional franchise, even though Iran has not been able to deliver decisive blows to israel during the 12 day war, it can still hit Israel’s soft targets effectively.

The Survival Manual: What Must Be Done

I am looking at the Iranian diaspora right now: your job is to pressure your host governments to stop this madness. It is not Khamenei or his generals who will pay the blood price for a US air campaign; it is the Iranian working class. We want the regime gone, but it cannot be allowed to take the nation of Iran into the grave with it.

To the citizens living in Tehran, Isfahan, and Shiraz: stop refreshing your news feeds and start preparing for the impact. The "fog of war" is about to roll in.

• Logistics: Procure a strict one-month stockpile of non-perishable calories and critical medication today.

• Comms: The power grid might be a primary military target. When the lights go out, the internet dies with it. Buy a battery-operated radio. It will be your only tether to reality.

• The Neighborhood Network: The state will abandon you. Do not expect police or ambulances. Your only safety is hyper-local. Walk outside today, knock on your neighbor's door, and organize a formal logistics cell. Figure out how you will pool food, run a street watch to repel looters, and triage the wounded.

The carriers are at the gate. Whether tomorrow brings a bitter diplomatic freeze, a botched assassination, or the fire of a catastrophic war, the burden of survival falls on you. Regroup, stock up, and protect your neighbor. It is the only shield you have left.