Interview with Dr. Mehrdad Darvishpour
Associate Professor of Sociology, University of Malardalen, Sweden
Q- What is the current situation in Iran and the Islamic Republic of Iran?
A- Iran is facing a multi-faceted challenges that ignoring them would be considered wishful thinking. From one side it is a reality that after forty years of theocratic rule Iranian society strongly seeks a secular future. Although during the revolution, Islamic tendency was prevalent amongst the population, but now after forty years the Iranian People even those that hardened supporters of this regime are frustrated. On the other hand, a government that came to power in the name of the poor and the deprived segment of the Iranian society are being challenged by the same group as we saw in the bloody protests of November 2019. So the ideological split between the people and the government has caused even more illegitimacy of the regime. This regime came to power as the government of the poor and the lower class and not the rich. The amount of rampant corruption that we see today even those ardent supporters have lost their faith in this regime. As much as this regime is challenged for its existence by the lower class it is not so amongst the middle class of the society. From an international perspective, it is facing isolation, crippling sanctions without a true friend with the exception of President Assad of Syria.
Considering these challenges that I mentioned above, I don’t see a bright future for this regime. By bright future I do not mean its existent future is in immediate danger by external forces as what we saw in Iraq and Afghanistan that I hope will never happen to Iran as I don’t believe democracy can be exported by external forces to another country.
In my view what happened in November of 2019 shows the society has passed from reforming this regime to changing the regime in its entirety not necessarily in a form of revolution. In my view we will continue to see protests followed by suppression by the regime and them more protests. It’s not clear when these protests will cause a change but we should not minimize the power of the regime, either locally or regionally. But one thing is clear. This regime is unable to resolve its economic issues, local management, security issues as well as the challenges it faces globally, yet we should not minimize it power to rule by force. In short if we think this regime will go away anytime soon is unrealistic and wishful thinking as it has overcome its challenges in recent months. To end my answer, considering what the world is facing with Coronavirus we will not see any opposition in the near future as the Iranian society are being challenged as others but certainly it is not the end of the challenges this regime will face once we are over current challenges.
Q- What has been the challenges of Coronavirus and regime response?
A- I believe there are ten challenges in regards to this issue.
First – It’s the lack of trust to this government. Throughout the years this regime has lied so much, that even on an issue that is not even political it continued to do so. Either because they did not want to see a low turnout on the upcoming elections or it was getting ready to celebrate the anniversary of the revolution. They tried to lower the severity of the disease and the number of victims who were infected by it. Just like during the medieval times when the church resorted to superstitious acts to combat this virus. In the case of Iran, what has had the most effect to lessen the religious beliefs of the people has been this virus. We must accept that even though the tendency towards secularism has grown in Iran there are still those who still believe in religion.
Second - The people of Iran will survive the coronavirus. The people who have survived all recent events, from the downing of the Ukrainian plain to the suppression of their protests and others will certainly come out of this one with their heads high.
Third - Culture of good hygiene will become very important amongst the people.
Fourth - Personal responsibility will become more important. Even though in some cases the people have not observe the need to stay home during these hard times and go on trip and vacation, yet they have correctly pinpointed their problem being the regime by their protests and have lost confidence that this regime is incapable of addressing their problem.
Fifth - It seems the conscious of the civil society in managing the virus crisis has flourished meaning while the government was incapable to manage the crisis at the beginning at least, but it was the civil society specially the doctors who took it upon themselves to manage it causing many of them to die from it.
Sixth – One of the outcomes of the Corona and its after effect both in Iran and elsewhere is the importance and value of caring for one rather the profit you can gain.
Seventh – In the same retrospect one thing we will see is the need for national solidarity and international cooperation amongst nations although we will still see escalation of tension in some areas.
Eight - The outcome of Corona in Iran also has some inconsistencies. From one side in the short term the protests in Iran will be subsided and sidelined while in the long term increases as discontent of the regime continues.
Ninth – Replacement of fear of authority with authority over fear. What I mean by this is that we no longer will see people afraid of the regime as we have seen in recent protests. But they will be much more cautious on their actions.
Tenth – A tragic comedy outcome form this this virus is how the people are dealing with it. Dancing in the hospitals is such an example. It shows the self-confidence of the people towards death while at the same time it shows their appreciation for the doctors and nurses who are sacrificing their lives to combat this virus.
Q- What do you think of current sanctions against Iran and its effect on the regime and the people?
A- I have never supported widespread sanctions against the people but I do support smart sanctions since it is directed at the regime and its various apparatuses. As to the widespread sanctions unfortunately it is the people who are directly effected as we have witnessed. Today with the spread of Coronavirus we are noticing the impact of these sanctions in the form of lack of medically necessary equipment to combat its spread. I believe while the continuation of smart sanctions must continue but I think the Trump Administration must review those others to avoid further death that is caused by Coronavirus. They must facilitate the condition to make it easier for NGOs to help their counterparts in Iran. As to the financial assistance many people are concerned that they will be spent on nefarious and not what they meant for. So I believe any payments must be made under the auspices and monitoring of and by the international community.
Q- What do you think the current situation of the opposition abroad and should they do?
A- We have to accept that opposition is very fractious and unfortunately it has been for like this for the last forty years. Some problems are because of age, many years in exile, lack of contact with Iran and many other problems that we face. We should not expect all of opposition to talk with one voice. Every division of the opposition is doing their work and the Secular Republics are doing the same. The opposition needs to respect others point of views whether you are ardent communist, reformists or secular republicans and others. Although we have seen voices in Iran for return to before the revolution no thanks to the disaster policies and governance of the Islamic Republic of Iran yet we have to accept that to gain democracy you cannot go backward. We need to get away from governments based on ideology or religion or hereditary. That is why I think form of a republican government is the best for future of Iran since it is not based on ideology, but rather democracy and secularism is a precondition. One more thing that is important to the future of Iran is social justice and opposition to discrimination which is important for it to succeed.
