Interview with Mr. Hormoz Houshmand
Member of the Union for Secular Republic and Human Rights in Iran
Q. How do you see the current political situation in Iran?
A. This is a very general question, hard to answer, but I will try to answer in general terms.
The regime is in a severe financial, health and legitimacy crisis and counting to be able to negotiate with US after US elections and not before.
As far as the Coronavirus is concerned, they have no choice but to open up and hope for the better, they will sacrifice people with no problem.
Q. Over the last few years the world has witnessed many protests beginning with the green movement. Do you think Coronavirus has put an end to these protests or we will be witnessing more in the future?
A. For the near future the chances are that we will not have big street movements because of Coronavirus, but further on is not clear.
These type of uprisings are part of this regime, because of the split and polarization of our society.
We cannot know when the Black Swan will happen, an event that will change both political and social system in Iran.
Q. What do you think the role of Iranian opposition groups outside of Iran should be? And do you support external interference to Iranian politics?
A. Regarding the Iranian opposition groups, it is one of the strengths of the Islamic Republic that there is almost no significant independent organized opposition.
The role of the secular democratic opposition groups should be to organize around the major modern forces, democratic nationalists, democratic left and democratic secular religious movements. What is most doable outside of Iran is for the opposition to organize itself and start the practice of democratic relationship between different forces within the Republican movement. This could be both an example and force to be reckoned by the regime. Without a strong opposition both in number and quality, we have to wait till Islamic Republic crumbles from within and hope for the better.
I am against any support or interference by a major power, this does not mean foreign NGO’s or certain personalities.
Support of major powers is antithetical to our sovereign political power and democratic ideals.
Self-determination is the right and duty of the Iranian people in its diversity and they will determine the change in our society.
Q. How do you see the future of Iran shape?
A. If we look at history, all political formations will end someday, what is unknown is when and how.
It would be speculative to answer the when and how, therefore for a political organization it would not be helpful to put its energy trying to speculate these questions.
It is much more helpful and practical to do what is in our power specially for forces outside of Iran and that is to stride to organize the three forces I have stated in the last question within the secular democratic republican movement.
The Islamic Republic will also end, but our actions today will affect what will come after this regime.
My political instinct tells me that this regime will not end without a violent uprising, this means a peaceful transition looks very unlikely. But this does not mean that we should start a violent campaign against this regime. We should strive for a non-violent campaign of civil disobedience and at the end it is the regime that will determine the reaction of the people opposed to it.
