The Struggle for Democracy in Sanctioned Iran
Executive Summary:
This policy paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the current state of Western sanctions on Iran and their impact on the country's democratic movement. It offers a set of specific policy recommendations aimed at facilitating Iran's transition to democracy by supporting the opposition while minimizing unintended consequences on the Iranian people. The paper examines the historical background of US-Iran relations, the political structure of the Islamic Republic, and the post-revolution era characterized by sanctions, tensions, and complex international relations.
The impact of sanctions on Iran is discussed in detail, including the economic consequences such as inflation, unemployment, and currency devaluation, as well as the effects on key sectors like oil and gas, banking, and trade. The paper also addresses the humanitarian concerns arising from sanctions, particularly the limited access to essential goods and medicines. It explores the unintended consequences of sanctions on civil society and democratic movements, highlighting the need for a more targeted approach.
The paper then delves into the key actors and challenges of Iran's democratic movement, examining the role of civil society organizations, opposition groups, and the use of technology and social media in mobilizing dissent. It also discusses the government's repressive measures and the struggle for democratic space within the country.
The regional dynamics and implications of Iran's democratic transition are analyzed, considering Iran's influence in the Middle East, the potential impact on regional stability, and the opportunities for regional cooperation and dialogue. The paper also examines the role of regional actors in supporting or hindering democratic change in Iran.
Based on this analysis, the paper presents a set of policy recommendations focused on targeted sanctions, technological support, international cooperation, and humanitarian assistance. It emphasizes the importance of targeting sanctions on human rights abusers and government entities. The recommendations also stress the need to empower civil society through technological support and circumvent government censorship. International cooperation is seen as crucial in building consensus and supporting the democratic aspirations of the Iranian people.
The paper acknowledges the challenges and risks associated with supporting democratic transition in Iran, including the potential for government backlash, increased repression, and the resistance of hardline factions. It also addresses the unintended consequences of foreign support, such as the delegitimization of Iranian opposition groups and the risk of creating dependence on external actors. Strategies for mitigating these risks and calibrating the approach to balance pressure and engagement are discussed.
Finally, the paper outlines an implementation and evaluation framework, setting short-term, medium-term, and long-term goals. It emphasizes the importance of monitoring and evaluating policy effectiveness and maintaining flexibility and adaptability in response to changing circumstances on the ground.
In conclusion, this policy paper provides a nuanced and comprehensive analysis of the complex issues surrounding Western sanctions and support for democratic transition in Iran. It offers a roadmap for policymakers and stakeholders to navigate the challenges and opportunities in promoting democracy and human rights in Iran while minimizing unintended consequences and risks.
Contents
The Impact of Sanctions on Iran:................................................. 10
Effects on Key Sectors: Oil and Gas, Banking, and Trade..... 11
Iran's Democratic Movement: Key Actors and Challenges......... 12
Opposition Groups: Goals, Strategies, and Obstacles..... 13
Regional Dynamics and Implications.......................................... 16
Opportunities for Regional Cooperation and Dialogue........ 17
Policy Recommendations....................................................................... 18
Challenges, Risks, and Mitigation Strategies.................................... 22
Government Backlash and Increased Repression............................. 22
The Role of Hardline Factions and Resistance to Change................. 23
Implementation and Evaluation Framework.................................... 24
Short-term, Medium-term, and Long-term Goals....................... 24
In the short term (1-2 years), the primary goals should be to:.... 25
Monitoring and Evaluation: Assessing Policy Effectiveness...... 26
Introduction:
Iran, a country with a rich history and cultural heritage, has been at the center of international attention for decades due to its complex political landscape, nuclear program, and tensions with Western powers. The Islamic Republic of Iran, established in the aftermath of the 1979 revolution, has faced numerous challenges, including economic sanctions, human rights concerns, and a growing desire for democratic change among its population.
This policy paper aims to examine the current state of Western sanctions on Iran and their impact on the country's democratic movement. It seeks to provide a comprehensive analysis of the historical background, the effects of sanctions on various aspects of Iranian society, and the key actors and challenges within Iran's democratic movement. By understanding these dynamics, the paper aims to offer a set of specific policy recommendations to facilitate Iran's transition to democracy while minimizing unintended consequences on the Iranian people.
The paper begins by exploring the historical context of US-Iran relations, tracing the events from the 1953 CIA-backed coup to the Islamic Revolution of 1979. It then examines the political structure and governance of the Islamic Republic, highlighting the role of the Supreme Leader, the President, and the various branches of government. The post-revolution era, characterized by sanctions, tensions, and complex international relations, is also discussed to provide a comprehensive backdrop for the analysis.
The impact of sanctions on Iran is a central focus of this paper. It delves into the economic consequences, such as inflation, unemployment, and currency devaluation, and how these factors have affected the lives of ordinary Iranians. The effects on key sectors, including oil and gas, banking, and trade, are also examined to understand the broader implications of sanctions on Iran's economy. The paper also addresses the humanitarian concerns arising from sanctions, particularly the limited access to essential goods and medicines, and the unintended consequences on civil society and democratic movements.
Iran's democratic movement is another critical aspect explored in this paper. It identifies the key actors, such as civil society organizations focused on women's rights, labor unions, and student movements, and discusses their goals, strategies, and the obstacles they face. The role of opposition groups and their efforts to promote democratic change in Iran is also examined. The paper acknowledges the significance of technology and social media in mobilizing dissent and the challenges posed by government repression and the struggle for democratic space.
The regional dynamics and implications of Iran's democratic transition are also considered in this paper. Iran's influence in the Middle East, particularly in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, is analyzed to understand the potential impact of a democratic transition on regional stability. The paper explores opportunities for regional cooperation and dialogue to support democratic change in Iran and considers the role of regional actors in either supporting or hindering these efforts.
Based on this comprehensive analysis, the paper presents a set of policy recommendations aimed at supporting Iran's democratic transition while minimizing the negative impact on the Iranian people. These recommendations focus on targeted sanctions directed at human rights abusers and government entities, technological support to empower civil society and circumvent censorship, international cooperation to build consensus and support democratic aspirations, and humanitarian assistance to mitigate the impact of sanctions on the Iranian people.
The paper also acknowledges the challenges and risks associated with supporting democratic transition in Iran, including the potential for government backlash, increased repression, and the resistance of hardline factions. It discusses strategies for mitigating these risks andThe unintended consequences of foreign support, such as the delegitimization of Iranian opposition groups and the risk of creating dependence on external actors, are also addressed.
Finally, the paper outlines an implementation and evaluation framework, setting short-term, medium-term, and long-term goals. It emphasizes the importance of monitoring and evaluating policy effectiveness and maintaining flexibility and adaptability in response to changing circumstances on the ground.
In conclusion, this policy paper provides a nuanced and comprehensive analysis of the complex issues surrounding Western sanctions and support for democratic transition in Iran. It offers a roadmap for policymakers and stakeholders to navigate the challenges and opportunities in promoting democracy and human rights in Iran while minimizing unintended consequences and risks. By understanding the historical context, the impact of sanctions, the dynamics of Iran's democratic movement, and the regional implications, this paper aims to contribute to the ongoing discourse on fostering positive change in Iran and the broader Middle East region.
Background:
To fully understand the current state of Iran and the impact of Western sanctions, it is essential to examine the historical context that has shaped the country's political landscape and its relations with the international community, particularly the United States.
US-Iran Relations: From the 1953 Coup to the Islamic Revolution
The relationship between the United States and Iran has been marked by significant events that have had lasting consequences. One of the most pivotal moments in this history was the 1953 CIA-backed coup that overthrew the democratically elected government of Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh. Mosaddegh had nationalized Iran's oil industry, which had been under the control of the British-owned Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (later known as British Petroleum). The United States, concerned about the potential spread of communism and the loss of Western control over Iran's oil resources, supported the coup that ultimately installed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi as the country's leader.
The Shah's rule, which lasted until the Islamic Revolution of 1979, was characterized by close ties with the United States and a push for modernization and Westernization. However, his policies also led to growing inequality, political repression, and the marginalization of traditional and religious segments of Iranian society. The Shah's rule was also marked by the establishment of the SAVAK, a notorious secret police force that brutally suppressed political dissent.
The Islamic Republic of Iran: Political Structure and Governance
The Islamic Revolution of 1979, led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, dramatically transformed Iran's political system and its relationship with the West. The revolution overthrew the Shah and established the Islamic Republic of Iran, a theocratic state based on the principle of "velayat-e faqih" (guardianship of the Islamic jurist). Under this system, the Supreme Leader, a religious scholar appointed for life, holds ultimate authority over all aspects of government.
The political structure of the Islamic Republic consists of several key institutions:
- The Supreme Leader: The highest authority in the country, responsible for setting overall state policies, commanding the armed forces, and appointing key officials, including the heads of the judiciary, military, and media.
- The President: Elected by popular vote for a four-year term, the President is the second-highest-ranking official in Iran. The President is responsible for implementing the constitution and managing the executive branch of government.
- The Parliament (Majlis): A unicameral legislative body composed of elected representatives who draft legislation, ratify international treaties, and approve the national budget.
- The Guardian Council: A 12-member body consisting of six Islamic jurists appointed by the Supreme Leader and six lawyers nominated by the judiciary and approved by the Parliament. The Guardian Council is responsible for ensuring that all laws passed by the Parliament are compatible with Islamic law and the constitution. It also vets candidates for presidential and parliamentary elections, giving control over Parliament and presidential candidacy to the supreme leader.
- The Judiciary: Headed by a chief justice appointed by the Supreme Leader, the judiciary is responsible for interpreting and applying Islamic law.
This complex political structure has created an intricate web of control mechanisms for the supreme leader, effectively rendering the elective parts of the islamic republic to executive assistants of the islamic republic.
Post-Revolution Iran: Sanctions, Tensions, and International Relations
The Islamic Revolution and the subsequent hostage crisis at the US Embassy in Tehran marked a turning point in US-Iran relations. The United States severed diplomatic ties with Iran in 1980 and imposed the first round of sanctions. Over the following decades, tensions between the two countries escalated, fueled by Iran's nuclear program, its support for regional militant groups, and its human rights record.
The United States and its allies have imposed various sanctions on Iran, targeting its energy sector, financial institutions, and individuals associated with the government. These sanctions have had a significant impact on Iran's economy and its people, which will be discussed in detail in the following sections.
Despite the tensions, there have been periods of relative rapprochement, such as the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015. The JCPOA, also known as the Iran nuclear deal, was an agreement between Iran and the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council – China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States – plus Germany) that aimed to limit Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. However, in 2018, the United States unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA under the Trump administration and reimposed sanctions on Iran, leading to heightened tensions and a deterioration of the Iranian economy.
Iran's post-revolution history has also been marked by its involvement in regional conflicts, particularly in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. Iran's support for Shia militant groups, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, has drawn international condemnation and further complicated its relations with Western powers and regional rivals.
Understanding this historical background is crucial for analyzing the current state of Western sanctions on Iran and their impact on the country's democratic movement. The following sections will delve deeper into the specific effects of sanctions on various aspects of Iranian society and the dynamics of Iran's democratic movement, providing a foundation for the policy recommendations presented later in the paper.
The Impact of Sanctions on Iran:
The comprehensive sanctions imposed on Iran by the United States and its allies have had far-reaching consequences for the country's economy, society, and political landscape. This section examines the impact of sanctions across various dimensions, including economic consequences, effects on key sectors, humanitarian concerns, and unintended consequences on civil society and democratic movements.
Economic Consequences: Inflation, Unemployment, and Currency Devaluation
Sanctions have severely impacted Iran's economy, leading to high inflation rates, rising unemployment, and a significant devaluation of the Iranian rial. The inflation rate in Iran has consistently remained in double digits, with IMF estimates suggesting that it reached as high as 45.8% in 2022(World Economic Outlook (October 2024) - Inflation Rate, Average Consumer Prices, n.d.).This high inflation has eroded the purchasing power of ordinary Iranians, making essential goods and services increasingly unaffordable.
Unemployment has also been a persistent challenge in Iran, particularly among the youth population. According to the World Bank, the unemployment rate in Iran hovered around 10% in the past 4 years(World Bank Open Data, n.d.), with youth unemployment estimated to be much higher. The lack of job opportunities has led to widespread frustration and disillusionment among Iran's young population, fueling social and political unrest.
The Iranian rial has experienced significant devaluation due to sanctions and economic mismanagement. In 2018, following the United States' withdrawal from the JCPOA and the reimposition of sanctions, the rial lost nearly 60% of its value against the US dollar (انواع نمودار قیمت دلار | شبکه اطلاع رسانی طلا و ارز, n.d.). This currency depreciation has made imports more expensive, further exacerbating inflation and economic hardship for the Iranian people.
Effects on Key Sectors: Oil and Gas, Banking, and Trade
Sanctions have targeted Iran's key economic sectors, particularly its oil and gas industry, banking system, and international trade. Iran's oil exports, which account for a significant portion of the country's revenue, have been drastically reduced due to sanctions. In 2017, prior to the US withdrawal from the JCPOA, Iran was exporting approximately 1.8 million barrels of oil per day,and 6 years after US withdrawal from the JCPOA, Iran still has not been able to reach that number(Crude Oil Exports for Iran, Islamic Republic Of, 2024). as many countries halted their imports to avoid US secondary sanctions.
International sanctions have severely impacted Iran's banking sector, with virtually all global financial institutions severing ties with the country to avoid penalties. Although these restrictions have complicated financial operations for the Islamic Republic
(IR) and its institutions, IR has developed various countermeasures to mitigate their effects. These include utilizing cryptocurrency exchanges, implementing barter systems, circumventing US dollar transactions, conducting direct trade in Indian rupees and Chinese yuan (RMB), and leveraging hawala networks. Meanwhile, these banking sanctions have imposed a particularly heavy burden on ordinary Iranian businesses engaged in international commerce. The impact has been especially severe on vulnerable segments of Iranian society, including the elderly, children, and individuals with chronic illnesses. The resulting scarcity and inflated costs of essential medicines and medical equipment have led to a significant deterioration in public health and increased hardship among the Iranian population. This widespread economic distress has hampered the growth of democratic movements, as a significant portion of society remains focused on meeting basic survival needs rather than pursuing political reform.
Unintended Consequences on Civil Society and Democratic Movements
While sanctions are intended to pressure the Iranian government to change its behavior, they have also had unintended consequences on civil society and democratic movements within the country. The economic hardship caused by sanctions has forced many Iranians to focus on basic survival rather than political activism, weakening the momentum of democratic movements.
Moreover, the Iranian government has used the sanctions as a pretext to empower the financial arm of the IRGC and the foundations under Ali Khamenei’s control (Bonyaads), which has led to a tighter government control over society. The government has portrayed the sanctions as an attack on the Iranian people and has used this narrative to justify the suppression of opposition groups and the restriction of civil liberties.
Sanctions have also hindered the ability of Iranian civil society organizations to access funding and resources from abroad, limiting their capacity to promote democracy and human rights. The lack of international support and solidarity has left many Iranian activists feeling isolated and vulnerable, further undermining the democratic movement.
Iran's Democratic Movement: Key Actors and Challenges
Despite the challenges posed by sanctions and government repression, Iran's democratic movement has persisted in its struggle for political and social reform. This section examines the key actors and challenges within the democratic movement, including civil society organizations, opposition groups, the role of technology and social media, and the government's response to dissent.
Civil Society Organizations: Women's Rights, Labor Unions, and Student Movements
Civil society organizations have played a crucial role in advocating for democracy and human rights in Iran. Women's rights groups have been at the forefront of the struggle for gender equality, challenging discriminatory laws and practices and demanding greater political and social freedoms for women.
Labor unions have also been active in the democratic movement, fighting for workers' rights and advocating for better working conditions and fair wages. The Syndicate of Workers of Tehran and Suburbs Bus Company (Sherkat-e Vahed) and the Iranian Teachers' Trade Association have been among the most prominent labor organizations, organizing strikes and protests to demand economic and political reforms.
Student movements have a long history of activism in Iran, dating back to the 1953 coup and the Islamic Revolution. In recent years, student groups have been vocal in their criticism of the government and their calls for greater academic freedom and political liberties. The Office for Strengthening Unity (Daftar-e Tahkim-e Vahdat), a national student organization, has been at the forefront of student activism, organizing protests and advocating for democratic reforms.
Opposition Groups: Goals, Strategies, and Obstacles
In addition to civil society organizations, various opposition groups have emerged to challenge the Iranian government and push for democratic change. These groups represent a wide range of political ideologies and strategies, from reformist factions within the government to exiled opposition groups advocating for regime change.
The Green Movement, which emerged in the aftermath of the disputed 2009 presidential election, has been one of the most significant opposition movements in recent years. Led by reformist politicians Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, the Green Movement mobilized millions of Iranians to protest against electoral fraud and demand democratic reforms. While the government eventually suppressed the movement through mass arrests and violence, it demonstrated the growing desire for change among the Iranian population.
Other opposition groups, such as the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), which acts as a front for the People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK), have operated in exile throughout most of the Islamic Republic's history, advocating for its overthrow. However, their support within Iranian society remains limited, primarily due to their historical alignment with Saddam Hussein during the Iran-Iraq war and the organization's cult-like internal dynamics.
The monarchist movement, led by the last Shah of Iran's son, represents another opposition faction that has struggled to establish a united front against the Islamic Republic. Their limited success can be attributed to several factors: an exclusivist approach to transition leadership, the presence of extremist elements who conflate Iranian nationalism with loyalty to the defunct Pahlavi dynasty, and their frequent resort to cyberbullying to silence dissenting voices. Former CIA chief Mike Pompeo has noted that their misplaced expectation of support from IRGC defectors for regime change has further hindered their progress(AzEslamBizar, 2024).
While individually smaller than the aforementioned groups, various secular republican movements collectively represent the majority of Iranians' preferred alternative to the current regime. Although these groups have generally struggled to form a unified coalition, the Concordance Coalition for Secular Republic (Hamgami) represents a notable exception, bringing together five different opposition organizations. However, this coalition still needs to develop extensive networks both internationally and within Iran to become a unified and effective front capable of facilitating Iran's democratic transition.
The developments of the past decade have demonstrated that the government's unyielding stance and continued repression require a more confrontational approach, with external pressure playing a crucial role in supporting the Iranian people's democratic aspirations.
The Role of Technology and Social Media in Mobilizing Dissent
Technology and social media have played an increasingly important role in Iran's democratic movement, providing new tools for organizing, communicating, and mobilizing dissent. Despite the government's efforts to censor and control the internet, Iranian activists have used various platforms to inform Iranians, coordinate protests, and build solidarity both within the country and with international audiences.
Twitter, Instagram, WhatsApp, and YouTube have been particularly important in this regard, allowing activists to share videos and images of protests, police violence, and human rights abuses with a global audience. The widespread use of smartphones has also made it easier for ordinary Iranians to document and share their experiences, bypassing traditional media outlets and government censorship.
Encrypted messaging apps like Telegram and WhatsApp have been crucial for organizing protests and communication among activists, providing a degree of security and anonymity in the face of government surveillance and repression. However, the government has also sought to crack down on these platforms, by blocking access and arresting individuals for their online activities.
Government Repression and the Struggle for Democratic Space
The Iranian government has responded to the democratic movement with a combination of repression, propaganda, and occasionally limited, temporary concessions. The security forces, including the police, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and the Basij militia under IRGC, have been deployed to crush protests and intimidate activists, using violence, arbitrary detention, and torture to maintain control.
The government has also sought to limit the space for civil society and independent media, shutting down newspapers, arresting journalists and activists, and blocking access to websites and social media platforms. The judiciary, and the revolutionary courts, which are controlled by conservative hardliners loyal to Ali Khamenei, have been used to prosecute dissidents and impose harsh, long term prison and exile sentences for political offenses.
At the same time, the government has attempted to co-opt and manipulate the democratic movement, offering limited temporary concessions to appease public opinion while maintaining the fundamental structure of the regime. The suspension of the morality police in the aftermath of killing Mahsa Amini, is an example of such a move. The morality police and compulsory hijab laws came back in less than a year to crack down on women not following governmental expectations regarding compulsory hijab.
The presidency of Mohammad Khatami, Hassan Rouhani, and Masoud Pezeshkian, were initially seen as an opportunity for greater engagement with the West and a relaxation of social and political restrictions. However, all presidencies turned out to be tactical retreats and attempts by the Khamenei’s office to buy time to pursue their agenda at a later time.
The struggle for democratic space in Iran has been further complicated by the country's complex political landscape, with multiple centers of power and competing factions within the regime. While some reformist politicians and activists have sought to work within the system to promote gradual change, recent experience has shown that the system itself is fundamentally incompatible with democracy and that more radical measures are necessary.
The government's repression and the limited scope for political reform have led some activists to focus on grassroots organizing and civil disobedience, seeking to build alternative spaces for democratic engagement outside of formal political institutions. This has included the creation of underground networks, the use of cultural and artistic expression as a form of resistance, and the development of parallel institutions and services to meet the needs of marginalized communities.
However, the government's crackdown on civil society and the chilling effect of sanctions have made it increasingly difficult for these grassroots initiatives to sustain themselves and build broader support. The democratic movement in Iran faces significant challenges in navigating the twin pressures of external sanctions and internal repression, while maintaining its commitment to nonviolence, pluralism, and democratic values.
Regional Dynamics and Implications
Iran's democratic movement does not exist in a vacuum, but is deeply interconnected with the broader political, economic, and security dynamics of the Middle East region. This section examines Iran's influence in the region, the potential impact of a democratic transition on regional stability, opportunities for regional cooperation and dialogue, and the role of regional actors in supporting or hindering democratic change in Iran.
Iran's Influence in the Middle East: Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen
Iran has sought to expand its influence in the Middle East through a network of allies and proxies, taking advantage of regional instability and sectarian tensions to project its power and counter the influence of its rivals, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United States.
In Iraq, Iran has cultivated close ties with Shia political parties and militias, providing military and financial support to groups like the Badr Organization and the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). Iran's influence in Iraq has been a source of concern for the United States and its allies, who fear that Iran is seeking to dominate the country and undermine its sovereignty.
In Syria, Iran has been a key backer of the Assad regime, providing military and economic assistance to help the government survive the country's brutal civil war. Iran's involvement in Syria has been motivated by a desire to maintain its strategic depth and protect its regional interests, including its access to Lebanon and its support for Hezbollah.
In Lebanon, Iran has been the primary sponsor of Hezbollah, a Shia political party and militant/terror group that has played a significant role in the country's politics and security. Hezbollah's armed wing has been involved in numerous conflicts, including the 2006 war with Israel and the ongoing civil war in Syria, where it has fought alongside the Assad regime.
In Yemen, Iran has provided sustained support to the Houthi rebels, a Shia militant group engaged in conflict with both the internationally recognized government and a Saudi-led coalition since 2015. This conflict has evolved into a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, inflicting devastating consequences on the Yemeni population. The recent escalation of Houthi attacks on commercial shipping routes in the Red Sea has significantly impacted regional economics, particularly affecting Egypt's Suez Canal revenue. These attacks have reportedly reduced the canal's annual revenue by $2 billion from its typical $9 billion intake (Houthi Attacks on Red Sea Shipping Wipe $2B off Suez Canal Annual Revenue - Al-Monitor, n.d.). Furthermore, the disruption has led to substantial increases in shipping costs along European-Asian trade routes, as vessels are forced to seek alternative pathways to avoid the conflict zone(Denamiel et al., 2024).
Opportunities for Regional Cooperation and Dialogue
Despite these challenges, a democratic transition in Iran could also create new opportunities for regional cooperation and dialogue, particularly in areas of shared interest such as economic development, environmental sustainability, and public health.
One potential area of cooperation could be in the field of energy, where Iran's vast oil and gas reserves could be leveraged for regional integration and development. A democratic Iran could also play a constructive role in regional efforts to address climate change and promote sustainable development, given its own vulnerabilities to environmental degradation and water scarcity.
In the security realm, a democratic Iran could be a key partner in regional efforts to combat terrorism and extremism, particularly given its own experiences with sectarian violence and insurgency. Iran could also play a role in promoting dialogue and conflict resolution in regional hotspots such as Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, drawing on its political and cultural ties to different factions and communities.
Moreover, a democratic Iran could be a catalyst for greater regional integration and cooperation, particularly in the fields of trade, investment, and cultural exchange. The lifting of sanctions and the normalization of Iran's relations with the international community could create new opportunities for cross-border commerce and tourism, benefiting not only Iran but also its neighbors.
The Role of Regional Actors in Supporting or Hindering Democratic Change
The role of regional actors in supporting or hindering democratic change in Iran is a complex and multifaceted issue, shaped by a range of political, economic, and security interests.
On the one hand, some regional actors may see a democratic transition in Iran as a threat to their own interests and stability, particularly those who have long relied on Iran as a source of support or a convenient enemy. Proxy terrorist groups such as Hezbollah and Iraqi groups under PMF and Houthis created by the IR will support and harbor IRGC officers or former government officials, hoping that they would fight to come back to power in Iran so they can continue their support. Countries like Saudi Arabia and Israel, which have portrayed Iran as an existential threat and a source of regional instability, may be reluctant to engage with a democratic government in Tehran and could seek to undermine its legitimacy or security. Moreover, some regional actors may also fear that a successful democratic transition in Iran could inspire similar movements in their own countries, particularly those with significant youth populations and growing demands for political and social reform. The example of a democratic Iran could provide a powerful counter-narrative to the authoritarian and sectarian discourses that have dominated the region for decades.
On the other hand, some regional actors may see a democratic transition in Iran as an opportunity to reduce tensions and promote stability in the region, particularly those who have been adversely affected by Iran's interventionist policies and support for militant groups. Countries like Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria, which have been the primary arenas of Iran's regional influence, could benefit from a more open and accountable government in Tehran that is less likely to pursue aggressive foreign policies or support armed proxies. Moreover, some regional actors may also see a democratic Iran as a potential partner in addressing shared challenges and promoting regional cooperation, particularly in areas such as economic development, environmental sustainability, and public health. The lifting of sanctions and the normalization of Iran's relations with the international community could create new opportunities for cross-border commerce and investment, benefiting not only Iran but also its neighbors.
Ultimately, the role of regional actors in supporting or hindering democratic change in Iran will depend on a complex interplay of interests, incentives, and constraints, shaped by both domestic and international factors. While some actors may seek to undermine or contain a democratic Iran, others may see it as an opportunity to promote stability, cooperation, and development in the region. The challenge for policymakers and activists will be to navigate these competing pressures and build coalitions of support for democratic change, both within Iran and across the region.
Policy Recommendations
Based on the analysis of the impact of sanctions on Iran, the dynamics of the country's democratic movement, and the regional implications of a potential democratic transition, this section presents a set of policy recommendations aimed at supporting the aspirations of the Iranian people for political and social freedom and transition to democracy, while minimizing the unintended consequences of external pressure and intervention.
Targeted Sanctions: Focusing on Human Rights Abusers and Government Entities
While comprehensive sanctions have had a devastating impact on the Iranian economy and society, targeted sanctions focused on specific individuals and entities responsible for human rights abuses and repression can be a more effective and less harmful tool for promoting accountability and reform in Iran.
The United States and its allies should prioritize the use of targeted sanctions against Iranian government officials, security forces, and institutions directly involved in the suppression of democratic activities and the violation of human rights. This could include asset freezes, travel bans, and other measures aimed at isolating and pressuring those responsible for repression and abuse. Moreover, the United States and its allies should create a mechanism for documentation and reporting of human right abuses so such targeted sanctions can be implemented swiftly.
At the same time, policymakers should avoid broad economic sanctions that disproportionately affect the Iranian people and undermine the country's civil society and private sector. Instead, sanctions relief should be linked to specific benchmarks related to human rights, political freedoms, and democratic reforms, creating incentives for the Iranian government to change its behavior and engage in meaningful dialogue with the opposition and the international community.
Diplomatic Engagement: Consistent, Coordinated, and Multilateral Approach
Diplomatic engagement with Iran should be pursued in a consistent, coordinated, and multilateral manner, with the goal of promoting dialogue, reducing tensions, and supporting the aspirations of the Iranian people for political and social reform.
The United States and its allies should pursue a multi-faceted engagement strategy with Iran through both bilateral and multilateral channels. This diplomatic approach should be anchored in clearly defined principles and objectives that give equal weight to human rights, political freedoms, and the rule of law as they do to nuclear nonproliferation and regional stability concerns. Such a balanced strategy could yield significant long-term benefits by strengthening democratic movements within Iran, potentially addressing the fundamental challenges posed by the Islamic Republic's governance system itself.
Policymakers should also seek to coordinate their diplomatic efforts with other key stakeholders, including regional partners, international organizations, and civil society groups, in order to build a broad coalition of support for democratic change in Iran. This could include joint statements, diplomatic initiatives, and public diplomacy campaigns aimed at amplifying the voices of Iranian activists and opposition groups and countering the propaganda and disinformation of the Iranian government.
Technological Support: Empowering Civil Society and Circumventing Censorship
Technology and social media have played an increasingly important role in Iran's democratic movement, providing new tools for organizing, communicating, and mobilizing dissent. However, the Iranian government has also sought to crack down on these platforms, periodically blocking access and arresting individuals for their online activities.
To support the ability of Iranian civil society and opposition groups to communicate, organize, and advocate for democratic change, the United States and its allies should provide technological assistance and resources aimed at circumventing government censorship and surveillance. This could include the development and dissemination of secure communication tools, virtual private networks (VPNs), and other technologies that enable Iranian activists to access information and communicate freely online.
In the case of a widespread national uprising like the November 2019 uprising, the Iranian government will cut off internet access again. The United States and its allies should develop a program / grant for subsidizing internet access using satellite internet services such as Starlink, Lynk Global, and AST SpaceMobile so that Iranian activists can communicate and coordinate during an uprising again.
Policymakers should also support the development of digital literacy and security training programs for Iranian activists and journalists, aimed at enhancing their ability to protect themselves from government surveillance and harassment. This could include workshops, online courses, and other resources focused on topics such as encryption, secure communication, and digital hygiene.
Moreover, the United States and its allies should engage with technology companies and social media platforms to ensure that their policies and practices are aligned with the goal of supporting free expression and democratic activism in Iran. This could include advocating for greater transparency and accountability in content moderation decisions, as well as pressuring companies to harden their platforms against censorship and mass monitoring of user activity/data.
International Cooperation: Building Consensus and Supporting Democratic Aspirations
Promoting democratic change in Iran will require sustained international cooperation and coordination, particularly among key stakeholders such as the United States, Europe, and regional partners. Policymakers should prioritize building consensus around a shared vision for Iran's democratic future, as well as developing joint strategies and initiatives to support the aspirations of the Iranian people.
This could include engaging with international organizations such as the United Nations, the European Union, and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to build support for human rights and democracy in Iran. Policymakers should also work to strengthen multilateral mechanisms for monitoring and reporting on human rights violations in Iran, such as the UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Moreover, the United States and its allies should engage with Iranian diaspora communities and exile opposition groups to better understand their perspectives and priorities, as well as to explore opportunities for collaboration and support. However, policymakers should be careful to avoid legitimizing or empowering groups that lack broad-based support within Iran or that advocate for violence or sectarianism.
Humanitarian Assistance: Mitigating the Impact of Sanctions on the Iranian People
While targeted sanctions can be an effective tool for pressuring the Iranian government and holding human rights abusers accountable, it is essential to ensure that sanctions do not have unintended consequences on the Iranian people, particularly the most vulnerable segments of society.
The United States and its allies should prioritize the provision of humanitarian assistance to Iran, particularly in the areas of healthcare, education, and poverty alleviation. This could include the creation of a financial channel exclusively for the sale of medical supplies and equipment, and food. This is in addition to the support for Iranian civil society organizations working to address social and economic challenges.
Policymakers should develop innovative approaches to support NGOs seeking to provide financial assistance to Iranian activists, worker unions, and charities. Specifically, the implementation of cryptocurrency and blockchain technology could offer effective means to circumvent both the Islamic Republic's restrictions and international sanctions. Since these transactions typically involve modest sums, it becomes relatively straightforward to ensure funds do not inadvertently benefit the Iranian regime or other malicious actors. A robust oversight framework could include established identity verification methods for intermediaries, restricting financial transfers to intermediaries based in countries with strong financial regulations and anti-money laundering laws, imposing transaction value limits (e.g., under $1,000), and confining transactions to well-regulated, dedicated channels.
Challenges, Risks, and Mitigation Strategies
Supporting democratic change in Iran is a complex and challenging endeavor, fraught with risks and uncertainties. Policymakers must be clear-eyed about the potential challenges and unintended consequences of their actions, as well as develop strategies to mitigate these risks and adapt to changing circumstances.
Government Backlash and Increased Repression
One of the most significant risks of supporting democratic change in Iran is the potential for government backlash and increased repression. The Iranian government has a long history of responding to internal pressure with violence and intimidation, and any attempts to support the democratic movement could be met with a harsh crackdown on activists, journalists, and civil society organizations.
To mitigate this risk, policymakers should prioritize the safety and security of Iranian activists and opposition groups, providing them with the necessary resources and support to protect themselves from government retaliation. This could include emergency assistance for individuals facing imminent threats, as well as long-term support for relocation and resettlement.
Moreover, policymakers should be prepared to respond swiftly and decisively to any government crackdown, using a range of diplomatic, economic, and legal tools to hold perpetrators accountable and deter future abuses. This could include targeted sanctions, public condemnation, and support for international investigations and prosecutions.
The Role of Hardline Factions and Resistance to Change
Another significant challenge to democratic change in Iran is the role of hardline factions within the government and society, who may see any attempts at reform as a threat to their power and interests. These factions, which include conservative clerics, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and other influential groups, have a long history of resisting change and undermining attempts at political and social liberalization.
Policymakers should be prepared for the possibility of a protracted struggle for democratic change in Iran, recognizing that progress may be slow and uneven. This will require sustained commitment and resources, as well as a willingness to adapt strategies and tactics in response to changing circumstances.
Unintended Consequences of Foreign Support: Delegitimization and Dependence
A third challenge to supporting democratic change in Iran is the risk of unintended consequences, particularly the delegitimization of Iranian opposition groups and the creation of dependence on foreign support. The Islamic Republic has long sought to portray the democratic movement as a foreign-backed conspiracy, and any overt support from external actors could play into this narrative and undermine the legitimacy of Iranian activists.
To mitigate this risk, policymakers should prioritize support for grassroots and indigenous Iranian civil society organizations, rather than exile opposition groups or external actors. This could include providing training, resources, and platforms for Iranian activists to amplify their own voices and tell their own stories, rather than relying on foreign intermediaries.
Moreover, policymakers should be transparent about their goals and intentions in supporting democratic change in Iran, emphasizing that their aim is to empower the Iranian people to determine their own political future, rather than to impose external agendas or interests. This will require clear and consistent messaging, as well as a willingness to listen to and engage with a diverse range of Iranian voices and perspectives.
Balancing Pressure and Engagement: Calibrating the Approach
Finally, policymakers must grapple with the challenge of balancing pressure and engagement in their approach to Iran, recognizing that both tools have their limits and risks. While pressure in the form of sanctions and other coercive measures can be effective in changing the Islamic Republic's behavior, it can also have unintended consequences on the Iranian people and economy, as well as limit opportunities for dialogue and diplomacy.
To mitigate this risk, policymakers should seek to calibrate their approach to Iran based on a clear assessment of the country's political dynamics and the effectiveness of different policy tools. This could include a phased approach that links sanctions relief to specific benchmarks related to human rights and democratic reforms, as well as a willingness to engage in diplomacy with the Iranian regime on issues related to human rights, freedom of speech, political repression, and political and religious prisoners.
Implementation and Evaluation Framework
To ensure the effectiveness and sustainability of efforts to support democratic change in Iran, it is essential to develop a clear implementation and evaluation framework that sets out specific goals, timelines, and metrics for success. This section outlines a possible framework for implementing the policy recommendations outlined in this paper, as well as for monitoring and evaluating their impact over time.
Short-term, Medium-term, and Long-term Goals
The implementation of the policy recommendations outlined in this paper should be guided by a set of clear and achievable goals, broken down into short-term, medium-term, and long-term objectives.
In the short term (1-2 years), the primary goals should be to:
- Provide and/or facilitate immediate humanitarian assistance to the Iranian people, particularly in the areas of healthcare, education, and poverty alleviation, to mitigate the impact of sanctions and other external pressures.
- Strengthen international consensus and coordination around human rights and democracy in Iran, including through engagement with key stakeholders such as the United Nations, the European Union, and east asian partners. Additionally, increased pressure on China as Iran’s largest trade partner to limit its trade and financial relationship with elements of the Iranian regime that is allowing Iran to strengthen its internal suppression and regional activities.
- Provide technological support to Iranian civil society organizations and opposition groups, aimed at enhancing their ability to communicate, organize, and advocate for democratic change.
-Lifting financial restrictions on Iranian civil society organizations and NGOs to enable them to forge connections with the Iranian diaspora and develop robust civil resistance networks capable of sustaining long-term strikes and protests.
In the medium term (3-5 years), the primary goals should be to:
- Continuous Implementation of targeted and harsh sanctions against Iranian regime officials and entities responsible for human rights abuses and repression, while avoiding broad economic sanctions that disproportionately impact the Iranian people.
- Pursue consistent and coordinated diplomatic engagement with Iran, aimed at promoting dialogue, reducing tensions, and supporting the aspirations of the Iranian people for political and social reform.
- Support the development of alternative media and communication channels in Iran, aimed at countering government propaganda and disinformation and amplifying the voices of Iranian activists and opposition groups.
In the long term (5-10 years), the primary goals should be to:
- Support the establishment of a more open, accountable, and democratic political system in Iran, through a combination of internal and external pressure, dialogue, and support for Iranian civil society and opposition groups.
- Promote greater regional stability and cooperation, through engagement with Iran and other key stakeholders on issues of mutual concern, such as, environmental sustainability, and public health.
- Foster a more pluralistic and vibrant Iranian society, through support for cultural and educational exchanges, as well as efforts to promote greater understanding and dialogue between Iranian people and the international community.
Monitoring and Evaluation: Assessing Policy Effectiveness
To ensure the effectiveness and impact of these policy recommendations, it is essential to develop a robust monitoring and evaluation framework that tracks progress towards specific goals and metrics over time. This could include a combination of quantitative and qualitative indicators, such as:
- Changes in the number and severity of human rights abuses and repression in Iran, as documented by international human rights organizations and other credible sources.
- Increases in the size, diversity, and effectiveness of Iranian civil society organizations and opposition groups, as measured by their membership, activities, and impact on public opinion and policy.
- Improvements in the availability and quality of alternative media and communication channels in Iran, as measured by their reach, credibility, and ability to counter government propaganda and disinformation.
- Changes in the nature and tone of diplomatic engagement between Iran and the international community, as measured by the frequency and substance of bilateral and multilateral meetings, statements, and initiatives.
- Increases in the level and effectiveness of international consensus and coordination around human rights and democracy in Iran, as measured by the number and impact of joint statements, resolutions, and other multilateral actions.
Policymakers should also seek to engage with a wide range of stakeholders, including Iranian civil society organizations, opposition groups, and diaspora communities, to gather feedback and input on the effectiveness and impact of these policies over time. This could include regular consultations, surveys, and other forms of participatory evaluation, aimed at ensuring that policies are responsive to the needs and priorities of the Iranian people.
Flexibility and Adaptability: Responding to Changing Circumstances
Finally, it is essential to recognize that the path to democratic change in Iran is likely to be long, complex, and unpredictable, requiring a high degree of flexibility and adaptability in the implementation of these policy recommendations. Policymakers must be prepared to adjust their approach in response to changing circumstances on the ground, while remaining committed to the overarching goal of supporting the aspirations of the Iranian people for political and social reform.
This could include a willingness to:
- Adapt the mix of policy tools and approaches based on their effectiveness and impact over time, including a readiness to shift between pressure and engagement as needed to achieve specific goals and objectives.
- Respond swiftly and decisively to any government backlash or increased repression, using a range of diplomatic, economic, and legal tools to hold perpetrators accountable and deter future abuses.
- Invest in long-term, sustainable partnerships with Iranian civil society organizations and opposition groups, aimed at building their capacity and resilience to withstand external pressure and support their efforts to drive change from within.
- Remain committed to the goal of supporting democratic change in Iran, even in the face of setbacks and challenges, recognizing that progress may be slow and uneven, but that the aspirations of the Iranian people for freedom, dignity, and justice are ultimately unstoppable.
Conclusion
Supporting democratic change in Iran is a complex and challenging endeavor, requiring a nuanced understanding of the country's political, social, and economic dynamics, as well as a clear-eyed assessment of the risks and opportunities for external engagement and support. As this policy paper has shown, the impact of sanctions and other forms of pressure on Iran has been mixed, with significant unintended consequences on the Iranian people and economy, as well as on the country's civil society and democratic movement.
To be effective, policies aimed at supporting democratic change in Iran must be carefully calibrated to minimize these unintended consequences, while maximizing the potential for positive impact and change. This will require a combination of targeted pressure on the Iranian government and its human rights abuses, consistent and coordinated diplomatic engagement, technological and other support for Iranian civil society and opposition groups, and humanitarian assistance to mitigate the impact of sanctions and other external pressures on the Iranian people.
At the same time, policymakers must be prepared for the challenges and risks inherent in any effort to support democratic change from outside, including the potential for government backlash and increased repression, the role of hardline factions and resistance to change within Iran, and the unintended consequences of foreign support, such as the delegitimization of Iranian opposition groups and the creation of dependence on external actors.
To navigate these challenges and maximize the chances of success, policymakers must adopt a clear implementation and evaluation framework that sets out specific goals, timelines, and metrics for success, while remaining flexible and adaptable in the face of changing circumstances on the ground. This will require sustained commitment and resources, as well as a willingness to take calculated risks in pursuit of long-term goals.
Ultimately, the path to democratic change in Iran must be driven by the aspirations and efforts of the Iranian people themselves. The role of the international community should be to support and amplify these efforts, while avoiding actions that could undermine their legitimacy or effectiveness. By working together in a spirit of partnership and solidarity, the international community can help to create the conditions for a more open, accountable, and democratic Iran, one that respects the rights and dignity of its people and plays a constructive role in the region and the world.
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