The Survival Imperative: Tehran’s Strategy Amid Crisis and Succession Fears
The Trump administration’s recent decision to suspend all foreign funding for three months—including support for Iranians opposing the Islamic Republic, an amount representing less than one percent of total aid—has become a focal point among dissidents. This politically charged move, paired with the administration’s first-ever silence on Iran’s long-standing human rights violations in 46 years, signals a determined effort by Trump to pave the way for comprehensive negotiations with the Islamic Republic. In this light, these actions could serve as confidence-building measures that facilitate dialogue with Tehran.
Iran is now confronting a convergence of crises: catastrophic economic conditions marked by stagflation and energy bankruptcy, widespread societal despair, and the erosion of its regional allies. The loss of the Assad regime—the regime’s sole steadfast partner in the Middle East—and significant setbacks for groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, Ansarullah, and the Popular Mobilization Forces have further confined the Islamic Republic’s maneuvering space. Although the suppression of the “Woman Life Freedom” movement and the subsequent fragmentation of a once-united opposition temporarily bolstered the regime’s confidence, the re-election of Donald Trump brought back the memory of his actions against the Islamic republic—such as the withdrawal from the JCPOA, maximum pressure tactics, and the assassination of Qassem Soleimani—which has only compounded its internal challenges. Recent addresses by Ayatollah Khamenei hint at a willingness to negotiate, yet how closely his objectives align with Trump’s remains to be seen in the coming months.
While analysts differ on the origins of the U.S.–Iran impasse, there is broad agreement that disagreements over Iran’s foreign policy and nuclear program take center stage, with issues like democracy and human rights holding lesser sway. The fundamental hurdle, however, is not ideological in nature but a stark security dilemma: the United States’ refusal to offer any guarantee for the survival of the Islamic Republic.
Any agreement addressing Iran’s nuclear ambitions and regional strategies must hinge on the U.S. recognizing Ayatollah Khamenei’s vision for the Islamic Republic’s “successor crisis” where power should eventually be transferred to “Mujtaba Khamenei.” Both the Iranian leadership and high-ranking IRGC officials see this planned succession as critical for ensuring the regime’s survival and preventing its collapse.
Thus, Iran’s threats to abandon the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in the event of a snapback should be understood not as measures driven by national interest but as a calculated attempt to deter U.S. interference during an impending transition. Even though the IRGC currently wields considerable power in Iranian politics, internal rivalries abound. Escalating economic woes and widespread frustration over systemic repression could mobilize a significant popular uprising during the succession crisis, potentially upending the existing power structure. Without the removal of sanctions, the influx of substantial foreign investment, and meaningful economic reforms demanded by many citizens, any promised “survival guarantee” remains hollow.
Furthermore, even if such a seismic shift were to occur, the Islamic Republic would find itself racing against time. Ayatollah Khamenei’s policy of framing Iran’s predicaments as security issues at their core has ironically empowered regional players such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE over the past two decades—states that are unlikely to back a U.S.-mediated rescue from this entrenched strategic quagmire. Consequently, the regime appears forced to limit its nuclear ambitions in exchange for modest economic concessions, a trade that offers no real assurance of survival as the succession crisis looms on the horizon.
Hamed Ainehvand is an International Relations graduate and serves on the International Relations Committee at USRHR in Iran, an organization committed to opposing and ultimately dismantling the Islamic Republic through the promotion of secular democracy and non-violent revolution.
